21st Century

The first quarter of the twenty-first century has been defined by conflict.

On 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks against the US ushered in the era of ‘The War on Terror’. US troops allied to local warlords would be engaged in Afghanistan seeking to root out Al-Qaeda and overthrown the Taliban. NATO’s Article 5 would be invoked for the first (and thus far, only) time. In 2003 a highly controversial invasion of Iraq was launched by a US and UK-led coalition. While the conventional military campaign was soon successful, fundamental errors in post-war planning would lead to internal power struggles and Iran being drawn in via proxy militias. Civil war and power vacuums would allow the so-called ‘Islamic State’ (Daesh to its opponents) to rise.

Elsewhere in the Middle East popular protest and rebellion would lead to the Arab Spring; in places it brough change for good or ill; in Libya and Syria it led to bloody civil wars that overlapped with the rise of the Islamic State and its proxies and drew in regional and global powers. Conflict in Yemen drew in an alliance of Arab states headed by Saudi Arabia while the Houthi movement found support from Iran. Israel engaged in a low-level ongoing campaign to resist growing Iranian influence in Syria and the expansion of Hezbollah as a regional power. The wars of the Middle East have become so intermeshed and overlapping that it is difficult to define where one ends and another begins.

The façade of peace in Europe has been dropped as Russia reemerged as a military power and a threat to Western interests. Flexing its muscles in a short but flawed campaign in Georgia, Russia would then go on to annex Crimea and lend support to separatist regions of eastern Ukraine following 2014’s Maidan revolution. In 2022 Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine (in a so-called Special Military Operation). The US and much of Europe would lend material support to sustain the Ukrainian defence and reassess their defence posture, while the formerly neutral states of Finland and Sweden would join NATO.

The People’s Republic of China has developed its military from an outdated self-defence force to a rapidly growing high-tech organisation to match or even surpass the US. While China expands its influence and builds bases around the globe it also engages in regular demonstrations of force in the South China Sea and seeks to return Taiwan to the fold.

At the time of writing, both the war in Ukraine and that between Israel and Hamas in Gaza are ongoing with no sign of conclusion in the near future.

Beyond the individual wars, this era has seen the emergence of non-state actors on a grand scale; private military companies such as Blackwater and Wagner emerged to act as proxies to the governments that host them; Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have inspired extremist movements around the world; Hamas and Hezbollah oppose Israel.

And, of course, there is a technical revolution in progress; drone warfare has taken a leap from large platforms performing traditional roles to platforms small enough to be held in the hand or transported in a backpack. The ability to survey the battlefield has achieved an unprecedented level and wherever the enemy can be seen they can also be struck to devastating effect. The implications of Artificial Intelligence on the battlefield are yet to be seen.

The story of twenty-first century conflict continues to be written in the headlines every day.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022)

2021 Israel-Palestine crisis (2021)

Yemeni Civil War (2015-present)

2014 Gaza War (2014)

Russian Annexation of Crimea (2014)

War in Donbas (2014-present)

Operation Pillar of Defence (2012)

Libyan Crisis (2011-present)

Syrian Civil War (2011-present)

Boko Haram Insurgency (2009-present)

Operation Cast Lead (2008-2009)