Before the First Strike

Can war be identified before it begins?

On 27 February 2026, an intelligence estimate assessed that the United States and Israel had entered the final phase of strike preparations against Iran. Less than twenty-four hours later, the war began.

Before the First Strike presents real-time intelligence estimates written during the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran War. Produced as events unfolded, preserved before outcomes were known, and maintained through independently verifiable chronology records, these assessments identified many of the conflict’s most important developments before they became publicly visible, from the outbreak of hostilities and the evolution of Iranian retaliation to the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience of Iranian command-and-control networks, and the growing role of space-based intelligence in modern warfare.

Rather than reconstructing events after the fact, this book follows the war as it was understood at the time. Each estimate is accompanied by contextual analysis and retrospective evaluation, allowing readers to examine not only what was assessed, but why those assessments were made and how they ultimately performed against subsequent events. Together, they allow readers to compare what was assessed at the time against what subsequently occurred.

The result is both a wartime intelligence record and a study of strategic warning under conditions of uncertainty. It offers a rare opportunity to examine how analysts distinguish between signalling and action, preparation and execution, assumption and evidence, while a major conflict is still unfolding.

Part intelligence history, part military case study, and part examination of contemporary warfare, Before the First Strike provides a unique account of the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran War through the estimates that sought to identify its major turning points before they occurred.